回复：[原创]也谈技术分析和基本分析 2 - Case ALSTOM
Case ALSTOM
Here I allow myself to take an example in order to make proof that a good technical analysis is additional necessary to the fundamental analysis.
Following the increase in the ALSTOM to the 20/11, the stock got a strong fall of 57% on the Stock mkt, while passing to 1.25 EUR. From this moment, certain banks proposed various recommendations.
Analysis/operations by big intl banks on ALSTOM
26-11-2003 DEUTSCHE BANK - negative Andrew Casing, the analyst of Deutsche Bank, is one of the first to have pointed finger the difficulties of the manufacturer of trains and gas turbines. December 2, 2002, it evaluated Alstom with 10 centimes whereas the title dimensioned more than 7 euros! Following the results of first half of the year, new uncertainties appeared concerning the prospects for benefit, the treasury and the funds of pension of the group, explained it at the time. The continuation of the events gave him reason.
28-11-2003 BANKS INCREASE THEIR POSITIONS
With the occasion of the new issue of capital of Alstom which to them was reserved on last 20 November, the banks clearly increased their positions.
BNP Paribas holds from now on 12,53% of the capital and the voting rights, against less than 5% before.SG goes up to 9,47%. In an opinion, MFA specifies that the two establishments will not yield any action until January 19, 2004 for the purpose of allowing their acquisition by the holders of the goods of acquisitions of actions emitted free yesterday to each shareholder.On the other hand, after January 19, the actions which will not have been acquired on exercise of the goods of acquisitions could be freely sold.
CDC of 30 969 141 Alstom stocks, accounting for 5,94% of the capital.
CIC (Mutual Credit group), held for its part 40 788 616 actions, accounting for 7,82% of the capital.
CA had through its subsidiary companies CAI and CLIFAP 49 679 968 actions representing as many voting rights, is 9,52% of the capital.
05/01/2004 MERRILL LYNCH REMAIN NEGATIVEMerrill Lynch camps on its positions, estimating that Alstom has no possibility to benefit and to generate cash-flow available. Merrill Lynch also thinks that the French could again encounter financing problems as of 2005. It judges finally that the solution for the group would be to transform its debt into actions what would be translated for the shareholders by a dilution of 80%..
09/01/2004 Alstom: Deutsche Bank holds 4,84% of the capital
26/01/2004 BNP PARIBAS CUTS SA PARTICIPATION - on January 19, BNP Paribas holds 1,29% of the capital and the voting rights.
- CIC holds from now on 2,26% of the capital and the voting rights of the industrial group (against 7,42% before).
- SG has 1,98% of the shares and the voting rights, against 9,47% with the preceding pointing.This disengagement would explain for a small part the strong volumes noted on the value with 93% of the capital exchanged last week.28/01/2004 CDC HAVE 2,96% of the shares (616.033.256 actions), against 5,94% before.30/01/2004 MORGAN STANLEY crossed in rise the threshold of 5% of the capital and of the rights of vote. Il from now on 5,44% of the shares hold.
11/02/2004 MORGAN STANLEY : OBJECTIVE AT 2,60 EUROS.Morgan Stanley explains why the performances of Alstom arrived at a point of inflection and that the group of transport and energy should soon garner several new contracts in its heart of trade.
12/02/2004 RUMOUR Of A LARGE CONTRACT IN CHINARumour (of HK) of a very large contract circulates in the rooms of market. The equipment supplier could be selected to provide TGV in China, on a Peking-Shanghai line of railway of 1.300 km. The amount of this contract would amount to 1 billion dollar.
12/03/2004 Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB), BUY. The broker has an aim of 2,50 euros, well above the last levels of quotation.
C-J : graph (excuse, cause i'd treated in french)
[img]http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y147/invescia/sg.png[/img]
[img]http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y147/invescia/als2003.png[/img]
[img]http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y147/invescia/als20041.png[/img]
[img]http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y147/invescia/als20042.png[/img]
[img]http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y147/invescia/als2004at.png[/img]
